By Ira Sharkansky
JERUSALEM — Several days of uncertainty. Netanyahu could not form a government, with his deadline approaching. He had 42 days to do it. A conflict between Lieberman and the Haredim (ultra-Orthodox) seemed at the heart of the problem. Principally a matter of enforced enlistment, and punishment of Yishivot whose students did not contribute sufficiently to the military. Lieberman’s motives puzzled commentators. A compromise seemed close, but unattainable.
Lieberman asserted his loyalty to Netanyahu, but many were skeptical. Toward the end, Netanyahu accused Lieberman of sole responsibility for the new election, and asserted that Lieberman had joined the left.
Two days before the deadline, the Knesset began the process of calling an election. Like other laws, it had to pass three readings. It got through the first easily, and the last two came very close to the deadline of Bibi’s opportunity to form a government..
Bibi worked to strengthen his position. He absorbed Moshe Kahlon’s party into Likud, and had party members endorse himself as their leader and candidate for Prime Minister in the next election. Observers noted that Bibi did this against the rules of his party, which required the endorsement of such matters by a wider forum than the one he arranged.
He and Kahlon also moved against many previous comments of Kahlon, saying that he would not sit in a government headed by a man under indictment.
Bibi also moved, then waffled, about including in his party Ayelet Shaked, who had been the Justice Minister allied with Naftali Bennett, and who was still the Justice Minister insofar as there had been no new government approved, despite that she hadn’t been elected to the Knesset.
That’s now been corrected, with Bibi’s firing of both Bennett and Shaked.
It would take a united Likud to approve a proposal to call an election. Despite opposition to Bibi’s shenanigans it seemed that Likud=Unity might hold.
It was among the uncertainties as the deadline approached.
Few seemed happy with the idea of another election, except perhaps for Bibi. For him, it was a potential life saver. His supporters? Difficult to identify them, except for those who spoke with some force in his support. And a substantial part of the electorate that either doesn’t recognize, or forgives the crimes that he is accused of.
A week ago there was a surge of interest in legislating protections for Bibi, and by the way four or five other MKs accused of corruption.
This produced considerable condemnation from retired Supreme Court Justices and former prosecutors, as well as a 50,000 strong weekend demonstration in Tel Aviv. That seem to quiet the proposals, given that they might not achieve the Knesset votes necessary.
Bibi had claimed he had nothing to do with the proposals for his protection, but it seemed clear that he was behind them.
Desperation? Along with his manipulation of party rules in order to confirm the absorption of Kahlon and his own re-nomination as party leader and contender for the role of Prime Minister?
For some time now he’s been accusing his opponents in the police, legal process, communications, and Blue and White as being intent on removing him, and being leftists. He’s ignoring former Likud colleagues who have moved to Blue and White and the mixtures among television and radio personalities, as well as the professionalism of police and prosecutors. He’s claimed victory in the recent election, overlooking that Likud was tied with Blue and White in the number of Knesset seats won.
The election is scheduled for September 17th, and Bibi’s hearings for early October. He’s certain to request another postponement of them, but we hear that the prosecutor is fixed on the current schedule.
As far as we can tell, the whole process we’ve been in for the past six weeks has been focused on Bibi’s legal problems, and his seeking of indefinite postponement or some other way out of them. All the while claiming that there is nothing substantial against him.
Sara’s problems seem to have been settled, with an agreement that she pay 55,000 NIS instead of more than 300,000 NIS. Her lawyer is claiming that it’s all been about a few snacks prepared by hired chefs, despite having a permanent staff of cookers in the official residence. Sara has also been required to admit to a criminal violation as part of the deal.
Now we have close to four months to see how things with shake out for another balloting. Will Kahlon and Shaked be absorbed into Likud, despite news of opposition from party members? Will the Blue and White coalition hold? Will Meretz and Labor run together? And what about Trump’s Deal of a Century, already moribund in light of Palestinian rejection?
And the principal question: Will voters wake up to Bibi’s game, plus his failure to create a government, and punish him? Or choose him again?
Cynics are comparing Israel to Turkey and Italy. The first because of the leader’s efforts to isolate himself from the judicial process, and the second on account of unsettled politics.
We’ve heard no end of speculation and commentaries, and reports of what Bibi or other Likudniks had offered Labor or its MKs, or MKs from Blue and White as incentives to join its government. There are also hints of rebellion within Likud, with its MKs tired of Bibi and urging him to deal with the prosecutors.
An end of ideology? Desperation? Or more simply a fatigue with Bibi and his games?
Several Israelis have instituted a case in the Supreme Court against the legally of the Knesset action calling an election. We’ll see how that plays out.
Also indications of Trump’s support for Bibi. And his willingness to postpone yet again his Deal of the Century until after Israel’s election? Or that of the United States?
Lots of uncertainties.
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Sharkansky is professor emeritus of political science at Hebrew University. He may be contacted via ira.sharkansky@sdjewishworld.com