Netanyahu maneuvers as mandate time dwindles

By Ira Sharkansky

JERUSALEM — We’re in the midst of a confusing set of maneuvers concerned with Bibi’s efforts to assure his continuation at the center of things.

Hearings have occurred, and there is conflicting commentary about their capacity to delay or derail the Attorney General’s decisions about indictments.

Bibi’s team of 10 lawyers are claiming victory, but other commentators are more than wary.

The Prime Minister thought about holding primaries within Likud, presumably to arrange his enthronement as the party’s choice for now and into the future.

But Gideon Sa’ar announced that he was ready.

So then the discussion of a broad primary ended, and there began talk about a more limited choice of a party leader, more likely to be Bibi.

And Foreign Minister Yisrael Katz indicated that it was not the time to challenge the party leader.

Bibi’s still short of the 61 seats he needs to establish a government, but he’s not yet given up the mandate so the President can choose someone else. Yet he occasionally says that he’ll give up the mandate.

Some right wing MKs outside of Likud have been outspoken in support for Bibi, while others have been quiet

Avigdor Liberman has indicated that he’ll make a decision after Yom Kippur, which begins Oct. 8 evening.

On the other side of things, Yair Lapid has indicated that he has given up the idea of rotating with Benny Gantz as Prime Minister if there is a deal for rotation with someone else. That is, a three way exit from the mess.

Will Gantz and Blue and White go against continuing statements not to sit with Bibi, in order to deal the way out of their mutual conundrum?

Israeli news bounces between speculation about what’ll happen in contemporary politics, and remembrance of the Yom Kippur War. There are programs about the flow of events in the Sinai, the attack over the Suez Canal, and what happened in northern Israel and Syria. And Bibi has spoken forcefully about the threats of Iran, and his own importance in leading Israel’s campaign against it.

And we’re hearing from a group of Likudniks close to Bibi, who attest to their undying loyalty to the party leader.

Bibi has held on to a block of Likud, plus the ultra-Orthodox parties and the New Right. He’s refused to negotiate with Blue and White only as the leader of Likud. Blue and White might come to an agreement with Likud, with or without Bibi, but hardly seems likely to accept the block of some 58 Knesset Seats Bibi has attached to himself.

Yet not all the MKs of those 58 have indicated a firm agreement to Bibi’s conditions. That’s among the questions hanging in the air.

There’s a speculative article about the head of the IDF in The Jerusalem Post. It begins with Bibi’s highlighting of a threat from Iran, then wonders if it’s his politics or if anything is different from Iran. It focuses on Lt Gen Aviv Kochavi as the key person in Israel’s security units who can be relied upon to indicate whether there has been a change in Iran’s posture toward Israel.

We’ll see how easy it is for Kochavi to speak differently from Bibi, especially if they appear together.

Bibi has proposed to his Cabinet a massive increase in the IDF budget, in order to provide greater defense against the kind of Iranian attack that was mounted against Saudi Arabia. Critics are saying that Bibi, as Prime Minister and Defense Minister, had not acted to approve the IDF’s budget over the past year. And they are saying that the IDF has the means now to protect Israel from an Iranian attack.

Bibi’s playing the defense card as strong as he can. Against his blasts are comments from individuals with extensive security experience that there is no indication of a major change in Iran’s posture toward Israel. And they’re asking why he has not pushed confirmation of the IDF budget over the last year.

Maybe he is too busy defending himself to be able to serve as Prime Minister and Defense Minister.

We’re seeing efforts by Bibi to strengthen himself, to ward off challengers, along with signs of his feeling that he must do something to stay in office. Desperation is the theme.

For an opponent, it appears pathetic. And we’re wondering how it will end.

And now, Bibi’s friend Donald Trump is raising his own questions about US involvement in the Middle East. His failure to act against the Iranian attack on Saudi Arabia, and now his seeming abandonment of Kurdish allies in the face of Turkish intentions, has worried Israelis as to where we stand in the preferences of the American leader.

גמר חתימה טובה

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Ira Sharkansky is professor emeritus of political science at Hebrew University.  He may be contacted via ira.sharkansky@sdjewishworld.com