JERUSALEM — Benny Gantz has received the mandate from the President, and is beginning consultations with just about everyone. He has 28 days, and the media is filled with contrary speculations.
He’ll be starting with Netanyahu, but that’s not likely to produce anything. Bibi has stubbornly insisted on holding his block of Likud, the ultra-Orthodox, Jewish Home and–maybe–New Right together. If he doesn’t become Prime Minister, he’ll be open to indictments that will rule him out of a ministerial position.
Gantz isn’t likely to accept Bibi as Prime Minister, so desperation is the theme for Likud.
And perhaps the other parties of his block. Most have signed on to a pledge to stick with him, but that may not hold water.
One of the more likely scenarios is a minority government, put in office by a majority vote of Knesset Members. It could have Blue and White, Labor, Democratic Union (Meretz), plus support from the Arab List and perhaps Avigdor Liberman. Having the Arab List and/or Lieberman within the government is possible, but less likely than having their support from outside.
That may not seem sensible, but takes account of sensitivities. Lieberman has expressed himself as opposed to the Arabs, Democratic Union, and maybe Labor. But he’s strongly against Netanyahu. Giving the Arab List ministries is also problematic, in light of the frequency of terror attacks by Palestinians, Israeli Arabs, and the violence within the Israeli Arab community.
Is there also a possibility of SHAS or even Yehadut HaTorah joining a government? Both have expressed opposition to Yair Lapid, a key member of Blue and White who is known for his strong opposition to the demands of the ultra-Orthodox.
There is also a strong opposition to Gantz ending his 28 days with nothing, then throwing things to the Knesset for three weeks, and then, if nothing happens, going to an election.
At the heart of all this is Bibi’s obsession with staying out of a judicial process likely to end up with a term in jail; maintaining his position as the head of Likud; refusing to go to a party primary; preserving the unity of the party despite maneuverings within it; and holding onto public support for Bibi and Likud .
It’s a complex picture. Getting rid of Bibi might come with a minority Blue and White-Labor-Democratic Union government, which lasts long enough for the Attorney General to finalize indictments, and then opens Likud to a primary and the selection of someone who can make a deal with Blue White.
Actually, there is little policy difference to separate Blue and White from Likud, except for Bibi’s presence at the head of Likud.
We’ll see what happens. Whatever, it’s not likely to be final, or even close to that. We’ve had a government that is a holding operation for about a year. There are things to be decided by a more established government, but they are not all that pressing. And Gantz isn’t likely to reach a final decision until he’s a lot closer to the end of his 28 days.
Word from the Attorney General’s Office tends to confirm the indictments after the hearings, and perhaps finalizing them within three week. Bibi’s people say that is an impossibly speedy time table, given that the considerations usually take a year.
It appears that Bibi’s 10 lawyers may not have been worth their cost. But they are still offering materials to the Attorney General, hoping to open new issues in the various files. So far it seems hardly more than material for commentators, to be considered in a trial whenever that occurs.
If the assessment holds, Bibi may be ruled unable to serve as a Minister while Gantz may succeed in creating a minority government.
And one of Likud’s Knesset Members is being investigated by the police for pressuring one of the witnesses against Bibi.
So far Lieberman is speaking with sufficient lack of clarity as to make us wonder if Gantz can make it with a minority government, i.e., with Blue and White, Labor, National Union, the Arab List (most likely supporting, but outside the government), with or without support from Lieberman’s party.
Bibi has compiled an impressive record in a long career as Prime Minister. But recently he has been obsessed with holding on, and denying considerable evidence of wrongdoing that appear to have been criminal in nature. It’s gotten to the point where it is not possible to accept his readings of the security situation, which he seems to create in order to justify his continuation as Prime Minister.
Along with his shrill calls for national defense, his government hasn’t acted to affirm the IDF budget for multi-year developments.
Whatever– This is a week of feeling out one another, with Gantz approaching all the parties. There is politeness, but little with respect to agreement. If they approach agreement, that should be apparent next week.
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Sharkansky is professor emeritus of political science at Hebrew University. He may be contacted via ira.sharkansky@sdjewishworld.com