JERUSALEM — Both the US and Israel are in the deep doo-doo, politically.
And Britain isn’t far different.
Impeachment proceeds in the US, with it seeming likely to pass muster in the House of Representatives. Trump’s approach to Ukraine over the Bidens is in the center of the inquiry, and there are numerous other issues that fall under the headings of “high crimes and misdemeanors.”
But the process is more political than judicial. While Democrats control the House, Republicans control the Senate. Impeachment seems likely to pass, but the guilty verdict will fall short of the 2/3 majority required.
Yet both parties see the process as part of the 2020 election. Will an impeached, but not guilty President have it rougher going than in 2016?
You can’t beat somebody with nobody, and presently the raft of Democratic candidates seems either too old, too uninspiring, or beset with other problems. Pete Buttigieg may be currently the most popular of the two dozen or so, but he’s gay, with political experience a long way from the Oval Office. Seventy-seven year old Michael Bloomberg is a new candidate, joining Biden and Sanders as 70+ year olds making an effort against an equally ancient Donald Trump.
In 2016, Trump indicated that he could lose the popular vote, but win in enough conservative states to carry the Electoral College.
Scholars are asking if the various checks and balances of the US are strong enough to deal with a President who seems to be breaking a lot of the rules. We’ll see if his disregard for realities, truth, and the revelation of his tax returns, along with all the other charges continue to attract enough of the poorly educated Whites to give him another four years.
Here in Israel the process is more clearly legal than political, but certainly with its political elements. Gantz turned back his mandate, after useless negotiations with Netanyahu and Lieberman, and an inability to create a government that rested on the support of the Arab List. Now we’re waiting to see if the Knesset can name an individual who can create a government. This situation may last for 21 days, until there’s a call for another election, perhaps on March 2.
But in the meantime we’ve heard from the Legal Adviser to the Government about the indictment of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
That could change things, by a significant bit.
Bibi has been skilled in holding on to office by his fingernails, and the law does not require a Prime Minister to leave office on an indictment. But it may prevent the President from offering Bibi the chance to form a government after an election. There is a lot that has not been adjudicated.
The Legal Adviser to the Government announced his decision on three indictments, with one of them for the act of bribery. All three include charges of fraud and beach of trust.
An hour after the indictments were announced, Bibi announced that he would continue as Prime Minister, and charged corruption in the police, the media, and the prosecutors. It was a fierce speech, making several charges about the treatment of witnesses and other issues.
Among other things, Bibi called for a Committee of Investigation to investigate the prosecutors.
Chances are dim that there’ll be a majority of Knesset Members voting for such a thing.
Key members of the government have been silent since the indictments and Bibi’s speech. White Gideon Sa’ar is the prominent opponent of Bibi, even he has been modest in his attacks. He says that Bibi cannot form a government, and should be replaced. The silent ministers are indicting the split within Likud, not yet apparent in a dump Bibi movement. As if they’re afraid to attack the leader, and waiting for him to recognize the futility of his campaign.
The Legal Adviser to the Government was appointed to the office by Bibi, after he had served as the Secretary to Bibi’s Government. Dr.Avichai Mandelblit has worked for more than three years of police investigations and then pondering the evidence with prosecutors within his office.
The timing is important. The indictments cannot go forward until Bibi has a chance to request the Knesset to enact his freedom from a judicial process, and that cannot occur because the key committee of the Knesset cannot be created under the present condition of a government by transition.
So unless Bibi is forced to resign by internal Likud procedures, it’ll be some time after the presumed election in March that his trial can go forward.
And until then, Israel will have to go through its various problems with a Prime Minister accused of bribery, fraud, and breach of trust.
In both the Trump and the Netanyahu cases, key people close to the top have contributed to his problems. Presidential appointees have added to the fuel about Trump’s relations with Ukraine; and individuals close to Bibi have turned into government witnesses.
While the two regimes differ greatly in their structure, especially with Constitutional provisions about impeachment protecting the President and a seemingly simpler legal process in Israel, both reveal the impossibility of administering governments without a host of aides to the President or Prime Minister. And with all those aides, it’s difficult to hide irregularities at the top.
In Bibi’s case, his declaration of pride in the state he has helped to develop and defend, along with his insistence at staying in office against severe indictments stands in strong contrast. Can he manage our problems without worrying about their implications for his own status?
So far Bibi has failed after two elections to create a government. Now he’s accused of bribery and other high crimes. It doesn’t seem wise for Likudniks to stay with him for a third try.
Still pending is the fear of some that Bibi’s providing incentives to the mad among us to take things into their own hands. There are memories of his inciteful speeches against Rabin prior to his assassination.
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Ira Sharakansky is professor emeritus of political science at Hebrew University. He may be contacted via ira.sharkansky@sdjewishworld.com