JERUSALEM — Another election. This one on Monday, March 2.
Why?
It depends on who is analyzing.
The Likud explanation is that Blue and White and Avigdor Lieberman did not accept the decision of the voters, and join a right wing bloc.
Blue and White’s explanation is that Bibi played his advantages for all they are worth. Not for the sake of the country, but for the sake of himself. To stay in office in order to maximize his chances of getting the Knesset to vote immunity for him. Or at the least to remain forever as a transitory Prime Minister with a transitory government, unable to take major decisions. He’s been indicted for the crimes of bribery, fraud, and breach of trust, but the trial cannot go forward as long as their isn’t a Knesset able to respond to his application for immunity.
Lieberman had the balance of Knesset votes, and was able to create one or another kind of government, but he chose to do nothing but blame both Likud and Blue and White for their intransigence. Lieberman has spoken out of both sides of his mouth, saying he’d support one thing, than that he’d oppose it, managing to stay aloof while adhering to a strong anti-Arab posture that prevented him from supporting a Blue and White led government, that would be kept in office by support from the Arab List.
Results of the second election were not all that different from the first, and polls are suggesting that the third will not produce results significantly different from the second, or the first.
Gideon Sa’ar has put his name in competition with Bibi, but that seems to go nowhere. Bibi is doing what he can to maintain control of Likud, and he has enough support in the party to stay in office, helped by a suspicion that the police, prosecutors, and media are controlled by the same people, intent on removing Bibi.
Yuli Edelstein and Gilad Erdan are keeping quiet, and away from interviews about their support for or opposition to Bibi.
Think about Bibi’s good friend, Donald Trump. Like Bibi, behaving as an outsider but inside, with allies in high places to most likely pass through the Senate after impeachment, and perhaps win another election. In Donald’s case, he’ll be helped by what seems likely to be near paralysis among Democrats, arguing as to which aged candidate will get the nod to go against the aged incumbent, who managed last time to win in the Electoral College despite having lost the popular vote.
It wasn’t easy selecting a date for the next election. One possibility was vetoed by an organization that was using that day to honor Israeli soldiers missing in action, whose place of burial is not know. Another date was vetoed by an ultra-Orthodox sect honoring an ancient rabbi. The date chosen is only a week away from Purim, and that prospect was mentioned as a possibility. Any Monday would be a problem given that Election Day is when the government and many large institutions are closed, and there is opposition to giving workers an extra-long weekend that might make them beach goers or overseas travelers instead of voters.
A lot can happen between now and March, and we can’t say what’s likely. There’s one suit in the Supreme Court that could force the Legal Adviser to the Government to demand from Bibi that he give up the ministries that he holds outside of the Prime Minister. And another suit demanding that the Legal Adviser to the Government decide if Bibi can run as a candidate for Prime Minister while under indictment.
There remains the question about Bibi’s support, and his capacity to retain the loyalty of many Likudniks, as well as those of party members in the right wing bloc of the ultra-Orthodox and right wing parties. And whether Avigdor Lieberman’s voters will stay with him despite his pondering this and that, and ultimately choosing nothing.
And whether the Third Election will produce something capable of forming a government, or whether it’ll only be the road to the Fourth Election, and then the Fifth, and then . . . ..
Recently there has been some talk about forgiving Bibi his sins, in exchange for him exiting politics. It has support from Lieberman, and a maybe from Gantz. Will Bibi take it? It may be his one stay-out-of-jail card. But it also means an admission of guilt, and leaving behind his supporters in Likud and the public.
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Ira Sharkansky is professor emeritus of political science at Hebrew University. He may be contacted via ira.sharkansky@sdjewishworld.com