Speculation rife over Trump’s deal, Bibi’s immunity

By Ira Sharkansky

JERUSALEM — Trump is on trial, whether he concedes it or not.

Bibi’s immunity is waiting confirmation or denial in the Knesset. Chances are that it’ll be denied if it gets to a vote.

We’ve had three days of international condemnation of the Holocaust, which has taken most of the time on the media. The highlight was the speech of German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier. He accepted German responsibility, and lamented renewed signs of anti-Semitism in Germany. He twice included a classic Hebrew prayer, the shehekiyanu:

ברוך אתה אדוני אלוהינו מלך העולם שהחיינו וקיימנו והגענו לזמן הזה

Blessed are You, Lord our God, King of the Universe, who has granted us life, sustained us, and enabled us to reach this occasion.

There’s also been considerable time devoted to a young woman jailed in Russia, and sentenced to seven and one half years for importing drugs.

Apparently an amount was found in her luggage while transferring flights from India to Israel via Moscow.

Seven and one half years seems exaggerated. Maybe the Russians wanted something from Israel. The case has gotten the attention of Bibi, Putin, and lots of media coverage.

That’s part of the setting.

Now, with the Knesset scheduled to consider Bibi’s immunity, Mike Pence has invited both Bibi and Gantz to Washington on that day in order to consider Trump’s Deal of the Century.

According to reports, Bibi asked for the invitation, most likely to attract attention and to defer consideration of his immunity. He also asked that Gantz be invited to travel with him.

Gantz pondered the trap that Bibi was setting for him, and arranged his own meeting with the President. Gantz announced this along with great praise for the relationship between the US, Trump, and Israel, and said that he will return to Israel for the beginning of Bibi’s immunity consideration in the Knesset.

We’ve heard that the deal would recognize Israeli absorption of the Jordan Valley, as well as the major settlement blocs in the West Bank. Recognize a demilitarized Palestinian state, and leave to negotiations on what remains, more or less.

Bibi is encouraging rightists to urge the adoption of what’s favorable in the plan (absorption of the Jordan Valley and major settlement blocs), and leave the rest for negotiation, while rejecting the notion of a Palestinian state.. A number of rabbis have urged rejection of a Palestinian state. But the Americans are saying that it’s a package, to be accepted as a whole, with parts of it to be negotiated between Israel and Palestine.

Palestinians have already rejected a deal that doesn’t give them a capital in Jerusalem, as well as other goodies associated with the pre-1967 boundaries. Palestinian leaders have threatened to curtail cooperation with Israel if the deal moves forward.

Israeli security forces are on alert against actions from Gaza and the West Bank, with some activity on the Temple Mount and elsewhere in Jerusalem, as well as armed balloons coming from Gaza.

So there is no deal, except for its attracting attention to details, as opposed to Bibi’s immunity from prosecution.

And with two leaders–Trump and Netanyahu–hanging on to office with less than certainty, each hoping for something that will detract attention from their problems.

Bibi’s are worse than Donald’s, given Donald’s party control of the Senate.

And Bibi has had many years in office, where he has worked against anything that looks like Israeli formal control of the Jordan Valley or the major settlement blocs.

Now there seems no limit on what he’ll do in order to hold on to office.

He’s calling for the formal declaration of Israeli sovereignty on the Jordan Valley, while Gantz is saying that the Valley is Israel’s defensive boundary. In other words, it doesn’t have to be formally annexed. A formal annexation will cause problems with Jordan and other countries, Arab and Europeans.

There’ll be more pressure on Edelstein, the speaker of the Knesset. How can he possibly allow a consideration of immunity from prosecution while Bibi has been invited to Washington to meet with the President on a matter of vital Israel national concern?

Likudniks and some members of its right wing block have indicated they won’t participate in Knesset deliberation of the immunity from prosecution.

Forget the three indictments for criminal behavior, and Bibi’s request for immunity. He wants to stay in office.

Commentators are all over the map, speculating on what the deal and the Washington meetings will do for Gantz, Netanyahu, and Israel. Rightists are enthused about what Israel can acquire, and admit their opposition to a Palestinian state and other goodies for the Palestinians.

Less passionate commentators aren’t expecting anything to come of this, saying it’ll go the way of numerous previous plans to settle the Israel-Palestinian problem.

Israel and Palestine will remain one of the world’s unsolved, and perhaps insoluble problems. It joins Cyprus, two parts of Spain, Scotland, and several other European question marks, with the Palestinians keeping our issues of autonomy hotter than others. Israeli settlements grow slowly, if at all, with an eye to the countries of the world that stand against any one-sided Israeli formal acquisition of land beyond some designation of what it had sometimes in the past.

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Ira Sharkansky, PhD, is professor emeritus of political science at Hebrew University. He may be contacted via ira.sharkansky@sdjewishworld.com