The Wandering Review
SAN DIEGO−Every year I predict Oscar winners in major categories. I am certain no African-American or woman will win an Oscar for best director since none are nominated. To refresh your memory, in 92 years, only five women have been nominated as best director and only Kathryn Bigelow (for Hurt Locker) won. Only six African American directors have garnered nominations, and all of them lost.
Think of my predictions as the Oscar version of Real Clear Politics. I compile the predictions made in key Hollywood trade publications to determine the likely winners. These reflect what insiders know about voting trends among members of the Academy. I list the favorite and the second most likely if the favorite loses. Since I have been doing this, my predictions have been right 90 % of the time.
BEST PICTURE
Favorite: 1917 Might Win: Parasite
BEST DIRECTOR
Favorite: Sam Mendes, 1917 Might Win: Bong Joon-ho, Parasite
BEST ACTOR
Favorite: Joaquin Phoenix, Joker Might Win: Adam Driver, Marriage Story
BEST ACTRESS
Favorite: Rene Zellweger, Judy Might Win: Scarlett Johansson, Marriage Story
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Favorite: Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood Might Win: Joe Pesci, The Irishman
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Favorite: Laura Dern, Marriage Story Might Win: Margo Robbie, Bombshell
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Favorite: Parasite Might Win: Quentin Tarantino, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Favorite: Jo Jo Rabbit Might Win: Little Women
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE FILM
Favorite: Toy Story 4 Might Win: Klaus
BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE
Favorite: Parasite No other film comes close especially if Parasite loses for best picture or director.
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Baron is professor emeritus of history at San Diego State University. He may be contacted via lawrence.baron@sdjewishworld.com