JERUSALEM — Israel is complex. It’s one country, but . . .
Leaving aside the problem of vague borders, here we’ll concentrate on its demography.
Recent election ties, the likelihood of another one in two weeks, and the prospects of a fourth election raise the issue of who are we, and why do we cluster as we do.
We can begin with several, more or less fixed, clusters of Israelis:
*Ultra-Orthodox, Ashkenazim, very likely to vote United Torah Judaism
*Perhaps a bit less fixed ultra-Orthodox Sephardim, likely to vote SHAS
*Israeli Arabs, most of whom vote for the United Arab List
*West Bank settlers, many of them Orthodox Jews, who vote for one of the right of center parties
*Jews of Middle Eastern origin, traditional in their religious practices, who tend to vote Likud, especially, perhaps, those with lower education and income levels
*Russians, a large and complex group, many of whom form the basic support of Avigdor Lieberman and go along with his right of center opposition to allying with Arabs or perhaps left wing Jews
*There are perhaps 125,000 Ethiopians, whom Bibi has tried to attract by bringing immediately 400 Falash Muras to Israel. However, he engaged in a bitter dispute, on camera, with personnel from social service agencies, who argued that it would take time to screen the several thousand Falash Muras in Addis Ababa, to find those eligible. And the present government might not have the authority to take major decisions of this kind.
There are variations in all of these clusters, but currently the ultra-Orthodox follow their rabbis and stick together (Ashkenazim and Sephardim separately) and, together with Orthodox settlers and Jews of Middle Eastern origin, make up the bloc that Bibi has sought to keep together, and behind himself.
The ultra-Orthodox demand freedom for their young men from the IDF or national service, plus financial support for their large families via low taxation and support for housing and education.
Israeli Arabs have not made it into government, but they work for improvements in their villages, cities, and towns and remain supportive of their Palestinian relatives. It’s not easy to separate their verbal support for Palestinian interests, and how far they go in support of those who are more extreme with respect to Islam or violence against Israel.
Jews of Middle Eastern origin express their opposition to Ashkenazi elites via their support of Likud. Despite a party leadership that tends toward Ashkenazi purity, they remain strong in their support of Bibi, especially, perhaps, in his anti-Arab pronouncements.
The Russians who support Lieberman express support for his anti-religious postures of support for civil marriage, and an opening of public transportation and shops on the Sabbath. Important here are the perhaps 300,000 Russians not recognized as being Jewish by the Rabbinate, and having to marry overseas in civil ceremonies.
Blue and White is currently the leading party, but without enough power to form a government. It is a mixture of left leaning and right leaning Jews, united principally under the mission of electing anybody but Bibi. Part of it, that identified with Yair Lapid, is identified as seeking to avoid alliance with the ultra-Orthodox, and gets in the way of an alliance between Blue and White and either United Torah Judaism or SHAS.
Left of center Jews who stick with Meretz or Labor have been reduced to a marginal group with less than 10 percent of the Knesset.
One can imagine a line up of Blue and White, plus the Meretz-Labor combine, with the United Arab List supporting, but remaining outside of the government. That amounts to 59 seats according to recent polls. Against it is Likud, Torah Judaism, SHAS, and Yamina (the Bennett-Shaked-Peretz-Smotrich) party, amounting to 53 seats.
That’s been a shaky line up, with Gantz saying that he supports Trump’s Deal of the Century and cannot accept the United Arab List as a member of his government, and the United Arab List wondering if it can support him from outside.
Holding the balance of power is Lieberman, currently polling 7 or 8 seats. Most of that is Russian, with the addition of others who are attracted to his right-wing, anti-anti-ultra-Orthodox posture.
Currently Lieberman seems to hold to his anti-Arab posture, but he sounds flexible with respect to the Meretz-Labor combine.. He speaks less of a united, liberal coalition of Likud and Blue and White, but without Bibi. All told, it’s hard to decide what Lieberman will do. He says that there won’t be a fourth election, but earlier said that there wouldn’t be a third.
If all that continues, we are onto a fourth election.
Among the possibilities is that either the Supreme Court, or the President, will decide that Bibi cannot be named to form another government. The law is not clear, and there is no precedent. Not only has he been indicted for three crimes, but the Legal Adviser to the Government has filed a case in a Jerusalem court, and the court has announced the three judges in his case. Bibi is campaigning as if there is no limit, and so far the Likud and his right wing bloc seems to remain with him. It won’t be easy for the Supreme Court to rule against a man with substantial popular support, or for the President to select another Likudnik to form a government.
The condition will present itself if Gantz is given the first nod from the President after the election, and he fails to put together 61 votes in the Knesset. Then will it be Bibi’s turn, or someone else’s?
In separate survey questions, Bibi continues to lead Gantz as a candidate for Prime Minister. No doubt that Bibi speaks better, in either Hebrew or English, and surmounts Gantz on the vague criteria of charisma. Bibi also has a moderate record in dealing with Palestinians, in actions if not in speech, and with other foreign governments. He’s been in office longer than any other, and shows no signs of caving into the reality of indictments and court filings on three cases. It seems likely that he’ll continue to fail to win election as Prime Minister, and has given up the possibility of leaving office with some grace. Those who fail can come back–if not as office holders, at least as a recognized senior citizen. Richard Nixon did it in the US, and Ehud Olmert in Israel. Both left office voluntarily. Here, Moshe Katzav left while denying any wrongdoing, and he has not returned as respected senior citizen.
It’s still up to Bibi. We’ll see what he does, and how the country responds. Currently, he is still running as a heavily promoted Prime Minister for life.
There’s also the possibility of flexibility with respect to the support by the United Arab List of a Blue and White government along with Lieberman. While Gantz and others of Blue and White say they won’t accept the support of the United Arab List, there may be some wiggle room in their posture. The United Arab List may decide, with or without the unity among its parts, to support the alignment of Blue and White, along with Meretz-Labor, and Lieberman, or withhold their votes, in a way to give Gantz’s government a Knesset majority; then get goodies from the Knesset over the government’s period of rule, without an open alliance at this point.
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Ira Sharkansky, Ph.D., is professor emeritus of political science at Hebrew University. He may be contacted via ira.sharkansky@sdjewishworld.com