JERUSALEM — We’re an upset and often confused little country.
Currently on our watch are four issues, each of which adds significantly to our uncertainties.
*The first ever criminal trial of a sitting Prime Minister:
*Declarations by the Prime Minister of his intentions to expand Israel’s control over parts of the West Bank, and–in anticipation–declarations by the National Palestine Authority that it’ll now cease cooperation with Israel and with the United States
*Continuing issues with Iran and its ally Hezbollah, including the onset or uptick of cyber war
*Significant ratcheting down of controls concerned with Coronavirus, and increases in several crucial instances of infection
Israeli justice moves slowly. Especially in the case of a sitting Prime Minister, currently requesting permission to borrow some $2 million from a cousin to pay his attorney’s fees.
Investigations into his behavior has proceeded till now for years. It has produced three criminal indictments for fraud, bribery, and breach of trust. Guesses by commentators range to three years for the time of the trial, plus another two years for consideration by the Supreme Court of appeals, assuming he’s found guilty.
And current readings of existing law are that a Prime Minister can hold his job until that process ends, assuming it ends against him.
Now we’re moving to the first act of a Jerusalem District Court, with three judges who’ll make the decisions. So far they rejected Bibi’s appeal that he not be required to appear in court for the first meeting, Sunday afternoon.
Chances are that the actually beginning of arguments and hearings of witnesses won’t get underway for months, or perhaps a year.
Already we’ve heard from one of Bibi’s Ministers– David Amsalem–accusing the chief prosecutor of his own corruption, and citing a hoard of media people and professors who are adding to attacks against the Prime Minister. Several ministers appeared near the court to support the Prime Minister. Their slogans included that it is a fabricated trial by prosecutors and media personnel distorted by their own biases; that it is a trial against right wing Israelis; and that it is a Dreyfus trial.
Bibi himself gave a rousing speech outside of the court room, with several of his ministers in attendance. He chastised the judiciary for its bias against him, and against the mass of the Israeli right which he claimed as his supporters.
This will not be a quiet and distinguished court process, free of politics. Bibi’s people will be loud and disturbing. Protections already noted to be in place around the prosecutors and judges.
Lots of commentators against him and his supporters. A few in support. Altogether it’s upsetting, embarrassing, and shameful.
The second issue on our calendar concerns the issue of expanding Israeli controls over areas of the West Bank.
Bibi has promoted it, claiming more support from US government than exists. Yet he’s had the chance to expand controls in his long rule, and has not pushed the idea to its conclusion.
Now there is mixed support among Blue and White. A major backer, Yamina, is not in the government. And substantial elements of settlers in the West Bank have indicated their opposition. They worry about being isolated among Palestinians, with complex roads for themselves, and little chance of moving around as they do at present.
But the Palestinians are behaving as it’s already done. There are strong proclamations of ending cooperation with Israel and the US. As well as support from Jordan. Its government is hinting at the end of the Israel-Jordan treaty if there’s a territorial expansion.
Israeli commentators are all over the map. Some claim that it is all blather from Palestinians and Jordanians. That they would lose as much, if not much more than Israel from an end of cooperation. Others are worried, that messages are going out to individuals and groups to begin another intifada.
Leading Palestinians are speaking with several tongues. They say that security cooperation will or will not continue. There have been some movements of Palestinian personnel. This is by no means the first time the Palestinians have threatened to close themselves off. They sound like peeved children. Especially their 84 year old President.
The third uncertainty concerns Iran and Hezbollah. The celebration of Jerusalem Day, or the conquest of Jerusalem in Iranian and Palestinian eyes, may have something to do with it. Incidents include efforts of individuals to penetrate the Israel-Lebanese border, and an uptick in cyber warfare. Earlier there was an Iranian effort to interfere in Israel’s water system.; then a more forceful Israeli penetration of Iran’s major port facility, which tied up traffic for several days; and then attacks on Israeli web sites coming from a variety of Muslim sources. Not far in the background are occasional or frequent Israeli attacks on Iranian installations in Syria, and the transfer points of Iranian munitions to Hezbollah. Plus periodic Iranian claims that Israel’s time on earth is limited.
The fourth uncertainty concerns the Coronavirus. Israel remains one of the brighter spots in the world, in terms of infections and deaths; and now movements to lift the various restrictions. Infections remain low, but there have been some worrying instances, especially in schools, of teachers, other personnel, and some students becoming infected, with larger populations sent to home quarantine for two weeks.
Various politicians and other activists are accusing Health Ministry personnel of exaggerating their concerns, while Health Ministry personnel are criticizing Israelis of ignoring the fuzzy requirements for social distancing and wearing masks. Restaurant owners and some performers have been prominent in violating limits and requirements for distancing. Jews are not good behavers. Independence is part of our DNA.
So far the increase in incidents remains low, but we’ll see.
All told, there are several reasons for concern, or worry. Israelis are used to uncertainty. And there are commentators at several points on all of these issues. It’s a time for concern. As it always is here. Perhaps now something of an uptick in tensions. Or several of them.
*
Ira Sharkansky, Ph.D., is professor emeritus of political science at Hebrew University. He may be contacted via ira.sharkansky@sdjewishworld.com