JERUSALEM — It’s been a tough week to judge, and to summarize.
The key event occurred Thursday, with the announcement of a formal agreement between Israel and the United Arab Emirates.
It came on condition that Israel shelve the plan to annex territories within the West Bank. Also, the UAE indicated that its Embassy would not be in Jerusalem, at least until there was some arrangement between Israel and the Palestinians.
The Palestinians were pissed. This was the third Arab government to form an agreement with Israel, and without following the Palestinian dictates of a capital in Jerusalem and keeping to the 1967 borders.
It signaled that the Palestinian claims were largely ignored, in yet another Arab country.
It was also a landmark for Benjamin Netanyahu. He had kept it a secret, even from Benny Gantz and his Foreign Minister Gabi Ashkenazi.
Was it so vital to keep it from them? Or was it yet another indication of Bibi’s desire to save the spotlight for himself?
Bibi’s action was, for him, more of the same. A brilliant balancing act, putting aside the right wing dream of annexation, for the sake of an accomplishment in the name of peace.
The step was not actually that great. For years there has been cooperation between Israel and the UAE, in ways not always known to us. Now it’s been formalized, and perhaps upped in one way or another.
This step showed, once again, Israel’s dependence on the United States, and Israel’s willingness to give up a right wing dream. But Bibi said that the giving up was not that, but a temporary taking off the table of something he continued to promise.
Most likely, bullshit.
It was a covering of what for certain supporters was a betrayal with a thin cloth. Just as the UEA’s betrayal of the Palestinians was covered by a thin cloth. There’d been a formal agreement, but its details won’t be implemented for some time. It’s convenient that Coronavirus will keep postponing, at least for a bit, the direct flights between Tel Aviv and Dubai. And it’ll take a while to exchange Ambassadors and set up Embassies.
Thomas Friedman called it a “geopolitical earthquake.” And he concluded a long article with,
“The U.A.E. and Israel and the U.S. on Thursday showed — at least for one brief shining moment — that the past does not always have to bury the future, that the haters and dividers don’t always have to win. It was a breath of fresh air. May it one day soon turn into a howling wind of change that spreads across the whole region.”
The rest of the week was more of the same. There was a continued high rate of infections, with some hot spots both among ultra-Orthodox and Arabs, that may produce closures. There was also a discussion of a general closure during the final two weeks of August, for the sake of reducing infections prior to the opening of school. And lots of opposition to anything so firm. As well as an opening of the skies, with trips allowed to Bulgaria, Croatia, and several locations in Greece. They’ll come with complex screening and limitations. They have travel agents applauding, yet expressing concern about the restrictions.
On Coronavirus, Bibi’s control seemed to be weak and declining. Agreements with this and that, and some questions as to what would be implemented. And a decline–at least prior to the announcement of relations with the UAE–of Bibi’s and Likud’s polling. At the last look, he wouldn’t poll enough to reach 61 Knesset seats for him and allies, and thus gain legislation freeing him from criminal prosecution.
It all raises the question of evaluating Bibi’s career. There has been some to applaud, as well as much to criticize and urge his resignation.
He’s been a masterful politician, with a skill to keep together the right wing, even while he does not press the accomplishment of the goals that he expresses. While being an extremist in his expressions, he has also been a moderate in his behavior.
Currently illustrating that is the dust up with Gaza. They have sent incendiary balloons against Israel, which have caused damage but so far no deaths or serious injuries. And likewise with respect to the IDF’s responses. We’re each doing damage to the other, but seeking to avoid something that will provoke a war. The Gazans sent several missiles seaward, to demonstrate what they could do to Israel. We can assume that they know what Israel could do in return.
What comes next may be additional Gulf area states upgrading their relations with Israel. We’ll see what the Palestinians and Iranians do, other than to express their shrill antagonism to the violation of the Palestinian dream. There’s no indication of Israeli withdrawals from the West Bank, or an uptick of Israel’s status in and around the settlements.
The Jewish State remains like the Jews of the world. Doing well, but limited by dependence on others, and with a status indicating less than full acceptance.
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Ira Sharkansky, Ph.D, is professor emeritus of political science at Hebrew University. He may be contacted via ira.sharkansky@sdjewishworld.com