JERUSALEM — A recent poll by the Palestinian Center for Public Opinion shows strong sentiment against trusting Israel, but along with that various segments willing to cooperate.
• 38% would agree to returning relations with Israel to their former status, along with various reasons concerning their ability to work in Israel and other economic opportunities
• 40% would agree to the resumption of security coordination with Israel, which in fact has been agreed to by the Palestinian Authority.
• 43% would agree to the resumption of peace negotiations between the Palestinian Authority and Israel
The largely negative findings may reflect recent news about Israel’s normalization with Arab countries, and the widespread marginalization of Palestinian interests.
Yet nothing dramatic is likely to happen in the foreseeable future. We’re waiting for the retirement of the 85-year-old Mahmoud Abbas. He continues in office despite his four year term ending in 2009.
What comes next? Who knows. Perhaps a period of violence among contenders and their supporters. We’ll see.
The change in American leadership is not likely to move things about Palestine anytime soon. There’s more on Joe Biden’s plate than the fate of Palestinians. Especially as long as Israel avoids large scale annexation or anything else to upset the situation.
And what comes next for Israel?
Currently all are speaking of an election, but no one is moving in that direction. The coalition government continues to operate, poorly. It’s avoiding a budget, for either 2020 or 2021. It’s approved some appointments, but not the most important ones. There’s been nastiness in the expressions by Bibi about Benny Gantz, and by Gantz against Bibi. Natanyahu went to Saudi Arabia without telling Gantz or the Foreign Minister, and Bibi is pretty much running the show, as he can.
Gantz is making an issue out of the submarines. The Legal Adviser to the Government earlier concluded that Bibi was not involved, but the issue continues to be contentious. Involved was Bibi’s agreement–seemingly all by himself, without consulting with the Defense Minister or other relevant personnel–that the German company ThyssenKrupp could supply a sophisticated submarine to Egypt, and that Israel purchase at least one submarine from the company beyond its navy’s need. If Bibi did not profit personally from the deal–and that is something to be investigated–it appears that close aides did gain.
Could the Legal Adviser to the Government’s conclusion that Bibi was not involved have something to do with avoiding controversy with the Germans? By all signs, their shipyard was involved in paying bribes to Israelis, and maybe to the Prime Minister.
The big headline on Friday’s Yedioth Aharonoth was “Four Directors General of the Defense Ministry, One conclusion, To investigate at depth the issue of submarines.” With legs, the story may produce a major inquiry that may impact Bibi..
Polls differ in their findings. One shows Likud likely to win 31 seats and its closest rivals Bennett and Lapid at 21 and 17 seats. Another shows Likud at 27 seats, Bennett at 23 and Lapid at 20.
Speculation is that a current election would be a danger for Bibi, and that his prospects are closely tied to a Coronavirus vaccine. Bets are that only a few health care personnel would be vaccinated early next year, and that the bulk of the population will have to wait till mid-year or later.
Bibi remains the most popular candidate to continue as Prime Minister, but the latest figures show him getting perhaps 33% support. Bennett is next in line, at about 21 % support.
And we’re wondering if Bennett will coalesce with Bibi after an election, or go his own way, perhaps in a coalition with Yair Lapid and others.
Lots of questions. Few answers. For us, the Palestinians, or the Americans.
The Palestinians who emerge at the top might accept an accommodation with Israel, assuming the Israelis at the top do not insist on taking more of what the Palestinians consider their own.
That’s not too far removed from what we have now.
But there are those in both communities who want more. Some act on those desires. Palestinian terrorists get applause and financial support to their families. Israelis who act aggressively find the police at their doors, but the mechanisms of justice work slowly, with those who defend the aggression.
It’s a difficult situation, with no fixed boundaries.
We’ll see how long it lasts.
And now we’re hearing that Israel was involved in the killing of the chief scientist at Iran’s nuclear program. News came from The New York Times. Lots of threats from Iran. Most likely an effort of the Trump administration to firm things up with Iran prior to the onset of the Biden administration. Perhaps with some help from Israelis.
Who knows for sure?
And here a failed effort to open some malls to see how it would work. Perhaps 10 percent of the country’s malls were allowed to open, on Black Friday, and the masses came to shop. Without apparent controls. So now we’re talking about a spike in infections, above 1,000 per day, likely to increase and produce the need for a Third Lockdown. When?
It’s a time for spinning scenarios. Or simply waiting, assuming things will remain more or less the same, but expecting change, without anticipating its direction.
Ira Sharkansky is professor emeritus of political science at Hebrew University. He may be contacted via ira.sharkansky@sdjewishworld.com