By Lloyd Levy
LONDON –While the news bulletins are focusing on street demonstrations in Egypt, there are five crucial points that are not being adequately explained.
Firstly, it is meaningless to discuss whether the Army is sympathetic to the rioters or not . Maybe some individual soldiers are sympathetic, but the fact is that the Egyptian Government is actually a military dictatorship anyway, and has been since the early 1950’s. At that time, an officers coup overthrew King Farouk, and in due course Nasser came to be the army figurehead, and then later Sadat, and Mubarak. They are the Army, and it is not a matter of the Army and Mubarak being two completely separate entities.
Secondly, I have not read one article that mentions the crucial fact that the Suez Canal passes through Egypt. This is probably the most strategically crucial shipping route in the World, and has been a pivotal point in Western security ever since it was built. It was as recent as 1956, when Britain went to War with Egypt to control the Suez Canal, and did capture it, only to be forced out by pressure from the USA. How is it possible that noone is discussing this fact during today’s crisis?. It is surely inconceivable that the “West” will stand idly by if the Canal falls into Islamist hands.
Thirdly, all this talk about it being a Revolution brought about by Twitter and Facebook, is nonsense. Some of the elite youth may be using Twitter etc, but computer usage in Egypt is about 0.5% of the population. There is no credibility in the argument that this is all due to the masses somehow communicating by the internet.
Fourthly, the attitude of the USA, aped by the European Governments, is to my mind quite outrageous. To deliberately try to force Mubarak out of office under present circumstances, is really cynicism of the worst kind. He has been the best friend of the “West” in the Arab world for many years, and the message it sends to other US allies in the region is thus very negative. It even has implications for US guarantees to Israel.
Fifth, who on earth does the “West” think is going to replace Mubarrak and the Army? Recent history shows us that they will be replaced by some maniac extreme movement. The US treat the Shah of Persia just as they are doing with Mubarak, and look who took over in Iran- the Ayatollahs. The US forced Israel to accept elections in Gaza, and look who came to power- the Muslim Brotherhood (Hamas).
Thus in my opinion, the situation is far from clearcut, and if the regime does fall, it will likely be catastrophic for Israel and the West.
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Freelance writer Levy is a British businessmanw ho divides his time between London and Eilat.