JERUSALEM — We’re up against a deadline. Presumably, if the Israeli government does not pass a budget today [Tuesday, Dec. 22), the Knesset goes home and there’ll be an election, perhaps within three months.
There have been several options, including a postponing of the deadline, and lots of discussion.
Perhaps an enactment of a 2020 budget, that’ll serve the country for the next week!
Party leaders were calculating and maneuvering. Naftali Bennett hasn’t indicated whether or not he’d coalesce with Bibi Netanyahu. Avigdor Lieberman suggests an alignment between his party, plus Bennett, Gideon Sa’ar, Yair Lapid, and whatever is left of Blue White.
Latest polls are showing that such an alignment could get at least 61 Knesset seats; enough to unseat Netanyahu.
Who would be the Prime Minister? There are several candidates, each with a strong ego.
The Arab Party would help, but there are several Israelis, including Lieberman, Bennett, and perhaps Sa’ar, who would oppose including the Arabs in their coalition.
There isn’t a dime’s worth of difference among the ideologies of Lieberman, Bennett, Lapid, and Sa’ar.
But there’s at least nine cents worth of ego, apparent in each of them.
In the background, but close to the front, is the Coronavirus pandemic and the onset of vaccinations.
Bibi has had his platform in being the first Israeli to take the needle. Along with Health Minister Yuli Edelstein.
There’s also been a surge of infections and serious cases. More in the ultra-Orthodox community than elsewhere. So there are proposals to shut down stores and shopping malls, only a short time after they were opened, with the mass of Israelis wandering, shopping, with kids.
Sure the malls are sources of infection. But also for the employment of thousands, and investments of who knows how much. So we’re hearing from mall operators that it would be futile to close them so soon after they opened. And claiming that there are major sources of infection elsewhere.
Who to believe? And what’ll be the response of politicians?
Bibi will be calculating his prospects of winning an election, in conjunction with Coronavirus infections and the spread of vaccinations.
Will there be more defections from Knesset Members of Likud? One left to join Sa’ar in the midst of the commotion over postponing the budget deadline.
Others will be weighing the attractions of being firmly anti-Bibi, or the opportunity to coalesce with him.
The ultra-Orthodox will be waiting for the results. Perhaps hoping to return to Bibi, or wondering how a coalition without Bibi might tolerate them, or impose sanctions on their individuals, schools, and other organizations. Or at least cut their budgets.
There was a possibility that Benny Gantz would once again give in to Bibi, and go along with one or another deal to keep the government together through this crisis.
He did that once, with the formation of a government after the last election, against the advice of Lapid, Moshe Ya’alon, and others in Blue and White with experience in dealing with Bibi. The obvious result has been continuing bickering, focused on who is responsible for the failure to agree on a budget or other matters. More like a kindergarten than an Israeli government coalition.
In the center is Bibi, doing what he can to avoid the effects of three indictments, with a Legal Adviser to the Government less than forceful in opportunities to keep an indicted individual from continuing as Prime Minister.
Some of the proposals seemed wild, especially to an outsider. They included trimming the power of the Blue and White Minister of Justice, expanding the time when Bibi would hold the position of Prime Minister, and the approval of some dicey appointments. We’ve heard threats from Blue and White Members of Knesset that they would leave the party, presumably in opposition to what they suspected Gantz would approve.
Now negotiations have broken down, and it seems that we’ll have an election in March.
Meanwhile, Bibi’s great friend and ally Donald Trump continues to deny the reality of his loss.
The American mess is much clearer than the Israeli mess. Trump continues to bluster. He has supporters. But key members of his government and Congress have abandoned his calls for a stolen election. He may run again, four years from now. But there are other Republicans itching for the opportunity. Chances are that American institutions will hold against an obstinate President, and keep the country together. More or less.
Here we’re still calculating possibilities, along with a number of high-ego politicians thinking about their own prospects.
We’ll see. Again, the most decent conclusion.
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Ira Sharkansky is professor emeritus of political science at Hebrew University. He may be contacted via ira.sharkansky@sdjewishworld.com