JERUSALEM — Israel’s election is scheduled for March 23rd. And more than previous ones, it is spawning the announcement of several new parties, both to the right and the left of Bibi. They’re all united under the slogan of anyone but Bibi, but not yet united in any more tangible sense.
On the right is Gideon Sa’ar, slowly picking off individual Knesset Members from Likud and Bibi.
On the left or left-center is the Mayor of Tel Aviv, Ron Huldai. He hasn’t resigned as Mayor, and there is some doubt that he will until he sees how many mandates his new party, Israelis, will earn in the election.
In the same quadrant is Ofer Shelah, who left Yair Lapid’s party when Lapid refused his request to have a primary election.
There is also Yaron Zelikha, a former Accountant General in the Finance Ministry, who has formed a party meant to solve the country’s economic problems. He wants to become the Finance Minister, and is sure that his planning will solve the country’s economic problems within a year.
And we’re hearing of a Pensioners’ Party, being created by former Mossad Chief Danny Yatom.
Still in the race, on the right, is Naftali Bennett, who is striving to be Prime Minister, and saying things against Bibi, but not committing himself to avoiding an alliance with him.
Avigdor Lieberman, who seems ready to align with just about everyone, except Bibi and perhaps Israeli Arabs. Lieberman wants to be the Finance Minister, and to have a party colleague named the Minister of Internal Security, with responsibility for the Police.
Yair Lapid is still in the center, and Meretz is still on the left, but Meretz is sometimes polling below the minimum.
Benny Gantz is still heading Blue and White in the center-left, and is speaking of continuing to run, but he’s lost and losing various Knesset Members associated with his party, and is polling just ahead or just behind the minimum to re-enter the Knesset.
Gantz seemed to be finished. He’s widely praised as a decent patriot, but he made a big mistake in joining Bibi in a coalition government. That lost him the affiliation of Yair Lapid, and marked Gantz as a compromiser who lost political distinctiveness. All he had left was his personality, and that wasn’t enough to hold his party together.
All the other newcomers are trying to gain ground with their own personalities. They’re linked as anti-Bibi, and we’ll see if that’s enough to produce a coalition that can seize power.
Neither Shelah nor Zelikha are polling enough to enter the Knesset.
Currently there is lots of confusion, with no clear winner. The combination of Likud, the ultra-Orthodox, and Yamina (Right, led by Bennett) may reach 61 mandates. Sa’ar is polling at 10 or so Seats less than Likud, but if he coalesces with just about everyone else except the Arabs, he could pass 61 Seats necessary to form a government.
The ultra-Orthodox are mumbling about Bibi, and suggesting that they may look elsewhere.
Question is, is the anti-Bibi card strong enough to overcome the egos of various contenders to be Prime Minister, as well as the fuzzy divide between Israelis identified as rightists, centrists, or leftists. As I noted in an earlier column, there isn’t much difference, except for the point of identification as rightist, centrist, leftist, or left-center.. But that may be strong enough to prevent an alliance. And until there is one, Bibi will remain in power as the Prime Minister in a transition stage, perhaps until the next election, whenever that’ll be!!.
What should the Israeli voter do, in the meantime?
• Wait to see what alliances the various parties create
• Wait to see what other parties form
• Wait to see what Huldai’s intentions are with respect to holding on to the position as head of the Tel Aviv-Yafo municipality, or playing national politics full-time
• Enjoy the greater mess in the United States, where Donald Trump continues to insist on his Presidency and works to undo the nasty result in the election.
Meanwhile vaccinations against Coronavirus proceed, but are said to be halting and waiting for more shipments, while the Health Ministry is saving enough vaccines to inoculate for a second time those already inoculated.
Bibi’s supporters are saying that he’ll arrange greater and quicker shipments of vaccine. They’re not saying how much Israel has paid for what it’s got, and they’re avoiding guessing about Israel’s competition with numerous other countries also wanting the vaccine.
And we’re waiting to hear about the accusations of anti-Semitism associated with Israel’s so-far success in vaccinating many of the aged, those with other diseases, and many of the care givers, cops, and teachers.
February 4th is the date when parties will have to indicate their lists of candidates and unite, if they do.
2021 is upon us. It’s too early to say if it’ll be better than 2020, or if Israel’s confused politics will shape up into anything that can govern the country.
May you all enjoy the New Year, and stay healthy.
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Ira Sharkansky is professor emeritus of political science at Hebrew University. he may be contacted via ira.sharkansky@sdjewishworld.com