This Year’s Oscar Predictions

By Laurie Baron, Ph.D

Laurie Baron

SAN DIEGO — Suppose they held the Oscar ceremony, and, almost no one had seen the winners and nominees in movie theatres.  The initial closure and subsequent limited openings of cinemas have postponed the release of big budget action adventure and comic book movies like the latest James Bond film No Time to Die and Marvel’s Black Widow. People sheltering in place have primarily watched the films contending for Oscars on computer and television screens.

Consequently, this year’s nominees consist of intimate dramas or recreations of politically or socially relevant events or situations. Among the eight movies nominated for best picture, The Father, The Sound of Metal, Mank, and A Promising Young Woman feature protagonists suffering from some addiction, disease, disability, or trauma and examine how these afflictions affect their careers or personal relationships.

Minari and Nomadland focus on characters coping with prejudice in the former and the Wanderlust spawned by the dwindling of American economic opportunity, the materialism of American society, and the disappearance of open wild areas in the country in the latter.  Judas and the Black Messiah and The Trial of the Chicago Seven reenact government attempts to suppress dissent and they implicitly evoke parallels to today’s police violence against Black men in efforts to criminalize political demonstrations.

My choices don’t necessarily reflect which films are my favorites.  Rather I base my selections on patterns I discern in predictions by Hollywood columnists and insiders.

Best Picture: Nomadland, Directed by Chloe Zhao

Best Director: Chloe Zhao, Nomadland

Best Actor: Chadwick Boseman Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

Best Actress: Carey Mulligan, A Promising Young Woman

Supporting Actor: Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah

Supporting Actress: Youn Yuh-jung, Minari

International Feature Film: Another Round

Animated Feature Film: Soul

Feature Documentary:  My Octopus Teacher

Best Adapted Screenplay: Nomadland

Best Original Screenplay: The Trial of the Chicago Seven

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Professor Emeritus Laurie Baron served as the Nasatir Professor of Modern Jewish History at San Diego State University from 1988 until 2012.

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