By Ira Sharkansky, Ph.D
JERUSALEM — It doesn’t look like Bibi can form a new government. Indeed, there are signs that he’s falling apart.
After the Supreme Court decided that there must be a Justice Minister, Bibi decided to appoint one of his Likud loyalists to the task, but that was clearly against the law. He had done it without consulting Benny Gantz, who by law must agree with him on key appointments. The Legal Adviser to the Government said immediately that the appointment was a violation, and turned again to the Supreme Court. Within a day, Bibi backed down and selected Gantz as Justice Minister. Gantz is also serving as Defense Minister, but it’s often the case that individuals serve in more than one function. And in the present situation, when there is no functioning government, the arrangement makes sense, more or less.
If not Bibi, who will be the Prime Minister?
That’s still up in the air.
And on something of a hold, given a national tragedy.
At times it seems that Lapid, Lieberman, Bennett, Sa’ar, along with the Labor Party, Meretz, and an Arab party will agree to form a government of change. And at other times it seems that those parties and individuals can’t agree on who would do what, or if they will agree to cooperate.
Bibi still has a couple of days as the man designated by the President to form a government, and then there’ll be time for others to consult with the President. The possible members of the new coalition are still posing and arguing about who’ll get what, and if they’ll agree to work together.
The media commentators are talking of this possibility and that possibility, without agreeing on any conclusion.
It’s hard to sort out the differences among several claimants to be for change, or anti-Bibi.
Both Gideon Sa’ar’s New Hope and Naftali Bennett’s Yamina claim to be right of center. And perhaps to the right of Likud. But what does that mean? Anti-Socialist? Almost the entire population is anti-Socialist. In favor of a Jewish state? Likewise, most of the population favors a Jewish identity for Israel. Supporting greater settlement in the West Bank? But what about the postures of the United States and the European Union? Both still subscribe to a two-state solution, and oppose significant expansion of Israeli settlements into the Palestinian West Bank. Both New Hope and Yamina may oppose coalition with Labor and Meretz. But then, both may go along with them if that is the price of replacing Netanyahu.
And what are the differences separating New Hope and Yamina? Beside the different personalities leading those parties?
Nothing that comes to my mind.
It’s common to place Yesh Atid, of Yair Lapid, in the center of Israel’s spectrum. Lapid has spoken explicitly of combining with all parties seeking change, against the egoism of party leaders, and hinting that he’d support Bennett’s aspirations to be the first among rotating Prime Ministers, even though Bennett’s party has only seven seats in the Knesset, against Lapid’s 17 seats..
Gantz and his Blue and White party are also in the center. And the difference between Blue and White and Yesh Atid, Gantz and Lapid??? Who can tell about their intentions, aside from the personalities at the top?
On the left are Meretz and Labor. Both support social welfare programs, but neither is explicitly socialist, at least not in a loud voice. Both identify with the Arabs of Israel, and have Arab members in their Knesset delegations. Their Arab leanings may distinguish both from Yamina and New Hope, but not from one another.
The two Arab lists used to be combined into the United Arab List, but one Arab Party, identified with the Muslim Brotherhood, has toyed with the idea of aligning with Likud. That involves a left-wing group of Arabs joining the right wing Israeli party! Who knows what unity could flow from that? But Bezalel Smotrich’s explicit refusal to join with an Arab party seems to have scorched the joining of Arabs with Bibi.
All of the Arab clusters, which have one Jewish partner, speak of greater support for Palestinian demands. But in the mood of uniting against Bibi, there may be a willingness to join in a government that downplays movement on the Arab front in order to pass the threshold of at least 61 Knesset seats.
There’s still a lot of talk about this and that, so far standing in the way of an agreement.
Politics has declined in importance to a calamity at Mt Meron. A hundred thousand or so of ultra-Orthodox and other religious Jews crowded a religious site on the occasion of Lag B’Omer, and something, perhaps associated with the shaky condition of the site, caused an escalation of the crowding and a stampede that killed 45 and injured more than a hundred and fifty.. News reports told of family members unable to find others, charges of police incompetence and a general confusion of responsibilities mixed with expressions of national sorrow that delayed, and perhaps one individual misidentified prior to his burial.
It appears to have been a tragedy waiting to happen, with several governmental and non-governmental actors involved in the setting, and none of them heeding comments of years ago from the State Comptroller about the problematic structure, quite unable to handle the crowds to be expected.
It’s hard to say if–and how–this tragedy will be added to the heavily mythic stories of Lag B’Omer and the prominent personalities identified with Mt Meron.
Bibi declared a period of national mourning, and overlooked his own earlier enthusiasm for the gathering at Mt Meron. He also said that he’d ask for an extension of his mandate to form a government, citing the crisis that brought forth many expressions of compassion internationally.
And Mahmoud Abbas has delayed–indefinitely–the first Palestinian election since 2006. He’s charged that it’s because Israel has not agreed that the Palestinians of East Jerusalem can vote, but there’s substantial indication that he feared the loss of support for his faction of Fatah if the vote went ahead as scheduled.
So we’ll be waiting for whatever happens in Israeli politics, now under the pressure of what occurred at Mt Meron and what’ll happen in Palestine.
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Ira Sharkansky, Ph.D., is professor emeritus of political science at Hebrew University. He may be contacted via ira.sharkansky@sdjewishworld.com