By Ira Sharkansky, Ph.D
JERUSALEM — Bibi seems to be finished. But he’s still trying, now to complicate the task of those with the President’s mandate.
One can imagine that President Reuven Rivlin intended this to happen; that he gave Bibi Netanyahu the first chance to form a government, with the intention or hope that he would fail. And while Naftali Bennett continued to speak about a right-wing government, his intention was to coalesce with Yair Lapid. But Bibi had to be given a chance, more to demonstrate his limitations than to expect his success.
Again, there are too many parties, and a great deal of ego conflict. But that’s something that won’t go away.
And there’s a fiction of a left-right divide. It may excite voters thinking of what they prefer, and who is best able to achieve it, but the divide is meaningless.
Socialism–the darling of the left–is dead. And likewise the conquest of the West Bank–the darling of the right. But politicians keep speaking of that divide, as if it’s real. Aside from exciting voters, it’s hard to see what they are accomplishing.
The State has been successful, but with serious hiccups.
One has to do with the ultra-Orthodox, most clearly demonstrated by the disaster at Mt Meron, with a cobbled-together structure and several Heredi groups responsible, and none able to take charge along with someone from the government.
Another has to do with Bibi, charged with three serious crimes, but with charisma and a capacity in two languages, and successful to stay in charge of the largest political party and to keep challengers at bay.
And–to give him credit where due–a capacity to bring enough vaccinations to have the state emerge from the pandemic, as well as creating alignments or near that with a number of Arab states, and keeping the Palestinians more or less quiet.
More later on the third hiccup, dealing with the Palestinians.
Now it’s the task of Lapid to put together a government with at least 61 votes in the Knesset, from an electoral outcome less than clear.
The combination of Lapid, Bennett, Gideon Sa’ar, Benny Gantz. Avigdor Lieberman, Labor, and Meretz gets up to 58 or 57 seats, depending if Bibi can pull a Yamina Knesset Member away from something he calls “leftist.”
Then one or more Arab party can contribute four or more votes to cement the deal and end Bibi’s career.
It’ll be quite an occasion to see the Netanyahus leaving the Balfour residence, but we’re not there yet.
There are still to be hammered out deals about the Chair of Knesset and who gets what ministries, but that seems more fluff to suit each party’s voters than serious dispute.
Actually, the parties have been working together for more than a month to reach agreements.
What’ll the new government actually do?
Israel’s situation is good, but not ideal. Somewhere close to the top of the agenda will be settling the huge debt left by the country’s dealing with the Coronavirus pandemic
And somewhere will be the issue of the Haredim.
Their problem is more serious and complicated than dealing with the site of Mt Meron. Bibi’s long tenure with the ultra-Orthodox parties have provided them with significant resources that allow Yeshivot to function and ultra-Orthodox men to study indefinitely without working or serving in the military. They are living in their own otherworld, expecting continued support without contributing to the whole. It’s difficult to penetrate their mind-sets, intensely religious and with minimum or no connection to what is necessary for a modern state to function.
Also unsolved is the issue of Arabs. And Palestinians, close relatives of Israeli Arabs and a source of demands and the pressures of violence easy to sweep under the rug of Jewish nationalism/religiosity. We’re some time from a major uprising, despite major issues boiling in East Jerusalem and Gaza. An unfortunate coincidence of Jerusalem Day and the end of Ramadan. There have been attacks by Arabs or Jews, with killings or property damage in the West Bank, missile firings from Gaza into Israel, and a parade of international bodies that keep alive demands for a two-state solution and the condemnation of Israel’s settlement activity in the West Bank.
And there’s no shortage of racist thinking among the Jews, as well as the Arabs. We’re cousins divided by religion and history. The need of the prospective government to include support from Arabs may help deal with some of the issues, providing the egos and “ideologies” of the various party leaders can remain contained, under control, or below the threshold of an explosion.
But it’s not a done deal. There remain quarrels, seemingly minor, but perhaps not to the parties involved.
And Bibi persists in calling Bennett a traitor to the true cause, for joining with the leftists. Bibi’s supporters are ganging up on Bennett. They’ve succeeded in drawing away one Knesset Member from Yamina and have sought to get others.
A side-show, or perhaps part of the main struggle is a suit brought by Sara and Yair Netanyahu against Ehud Olmert, charging libel due to his saying that they are disturbed, or crazy. Yair is on record accusing Ehud Barak of being a pedophile. It’ll be a colorful trial if it gets to court.
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Ira Sharkansky, Ph.D, is professor emeritus of political science at Hebrew University. He may be contacted via ira.sharkansky@sdjewishworld.com