By Ira Sharkansky, Ph.D
JERUSALEM — As ever, the future is uncertain. However, as far as we can see, there seems no chance for a two state solution on our borders.
But we can’t see too far into the future. The President of Palestine, West Bank, Mahmoud Abbas, is 85 years old. What comes next, with a civil war or not, is anyone’s guess.
Currently, the West Bank is quieter than Gaza. But “quieter” is a moderate term. Like an American ghetto. Always tense. Not a place for a good vacation, or even casual travel. It is open to Israeli security forces, which operate in a way to preserve the Abbas government, i.e., against those who would cause trouble for him or for us. In cooperation with his security forces. We commoners don’t know the degree of cooperation, but it seems to occur. And more than 100,000 West Bankers enter Israel daily to work. Most of them legally. Some of them coming through the fence.
Gaza is something different. Occasionally there are a few thousand who come to Israel for daily work, some regular commerce, and the freedom of Gazans to fish in the sea. However, there are also frequent outbursts of violence. Either missile attacks, some of which fall into Gaza, but others that reach Israel, and more frequently balloons that carry incendiary devices that set fire to Israeli fields. Last week an Israeli Border Guard was severely injured, and his family has become the focus of prayer vigils that have attracted thousands. There also has been an increase of Israeli security alongside Gaza, and increased prospects of yet another exchange of massive fire, here and there.
Israel has, more or less, reached agreement with the West Bank about its autonomy, and openness to our security forces. For both our benefits. With Gaza, various efforts have not produced any lasting gaps in the tensions. Apparently, the reluctance of Hamas or other Jihadists to agree with Israel is in the way.
As in past upsurges of tension, Egypt has involved itself as a peacemaker, or at least a source of temporary quiet. It occasionally closes its border with Gaza, as does Israel, along with limiting the fishing rights of Gazans as ways of pressuring those who control Gaza.
Who is that?
Hamas is nominally in charge, and is held responsible for what occurs. But there are several Jidhadist clusters, and who knows with what independence they operate. Sometimes, apparently, with missiles of their own.
Overall, the level of social conditions in Gaza is dismal. Huge unemployment, meager supplies of decent water, electricity, and health care.
Should there be a Palestinian State? What would be its borders? Or maybe two Palestinian States, i.e., Gaza and the West Bank? What about connections between them? And what about Israeli settlements in much of the West Bank?
Currently these questions are on hold. The Israeli government says no. Nothing more than Palestinian areas, with some degree of autonomy, but not States. The US and European countries hold to their demand for Palestinian Statehood. In general, without clear issues of boundaries. And not much pressure to implement significant change from the status quo.
And with the US withdrawal from Afghanistan, there has been an increase in commentary about an impact on Israel. Will we be left on our own? What about continued financial and equipment aid from the US?
Israel has always avoided dependence on US troops, but it remains dependent on equipment and financial aid.
Some assert that a period of US withdrawal will require Israel to act as the great power. In this region or wider?
Ha!
It doesn’t have the resources or the persistence for such action. Perhaps with respect to the Palestines, but little more. Maybe with respect to Iran. We seemed to have learned from our adventures in Lebanon, and in Gaza, to limit the involvement of our ground troops elsewhere.
Iran is the great question. If it acquires nuclear capacity, will there remain a stand-off between it and Israel?
And how will the US respond to the recent explosions in Afghanistan?
Unanswered questions.
Oy gevalt.
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Ira Sharkansky, PhD, is professor emeritus of political science at Hebrew University. He may be contacted via ira.sharkansky@sdjewishworld.com