By Steve Kramer
KFAR SABA, Israel — The United States, France, Germany, the UK, the EU, Russia, and China are about to resume “negotiating” the JCPOA, better known as the “Iran Deal,” concerning Iran’s nuclear weapons capability. Who’s missing from these meetings? Those countries most at risk from Iran’s warmongering: Israel, Saudi Arabia, and the Gulf states.
Not only is Israel not invited or even consulted, but the Biden Administration has given a clear warning to Israel to desist from taking any further actions against Iran which might exacerbate tensions, such as cyber warfare, assassinations, or “accidents” which occur in Iran. Evidently, the current US government doesn’t want any impediments to its “longer, stronger” deal with Iran – as if that were possible.
The whole point of negotiating is to maximize your demands and minimize those of your opposite number. Unless it’s a case of unconditional surrender, a win-win scenario is the best path to a successful negotiation. One would think that such a group of heavy hitters opposing Iran would have the upper hand, but the first five negotiators listed above decline to press their advantage. (The latter two are only too happy to see Iran run rings around the Westerners.)
It seems that there is nothing that Iran can do to dissuade the West from acceding to nearly all of Iran’s demands. Iran’s very obvious, usual tactic of postponing meetings for months at a time – as Iran ramps up its nuclear program – doesn’t alarm the West. The Western negotiators just bide their time, as if Iran’s progress towards a viable nuclear weapon isn’t happening. In fact, Iran dramatically progresses towards a bomb and the necessary delivery system, while the Western negotiators say things like, “We call upon President (Ebrahim) Raisi to seize this opportunity and return to a good faith effort to conclude our negotiations as a matter of urgency.” (Reuters, 10/21)
Good faith and urgency aren’t in Iran’s vocabulary. This isn’t the first time I’ve decried the West’s responses to Iran’s superior style of negotiating. A legion of columnists and pundits have been writing on this topic: Iran’s drive toward hegemony over the Middle East and the West’s feckless efforts to impede Iran’s progress. Some have even surmised that the West is rooting for Iran to rule the Middle East, based on the Western negotiating strategy, which declines using its overwhelming military and economic power over Iran, whose power is based mostly on its unrivaled ability to procure proxy armies from other Muslim states which fight Iran’s battles for it. America’s European partners, whose capitals are within range of Iran’s ballistic missiles, join the US in its laid-back attitude (so far), for undetermined reasons.
Meanwhile, the Biden Administration puts pressure on Israel, not Iran and its major proxy Hezbollah, Hamas, or other terrorist entities. According to The New York Times: “US officials have requested that Israel refrain from carrying out more attacks on Iranian nuclear facilities as negotiations in Vienna are due to start on November 29, 2021. In addition, American officials have told their Israeli counterparts that it will be impossible to use cyber weapons to slow down the Islamic Republic’s nuclear program, as the US and Israel reportedly did in a joint operation in 2009-2010 using the Stuxnet computer virus.
“American officials have warned their Israeli counterparts that the repeated attacks on Iranian nuclear facilities may be tactically satisfying, but they are ultimately counterproductive,” according to several officials familiar with the behind-the-scenes discussions. The Jerusalem Post report added that Israeli officials rejected the request and staunchly maintained Jerusalem’s right to act against Tehran, if necessary.
While many derided former Prime Minister Netanyahu’s speech to Congress during President Obama’s second term (3/2015), it did wake the world up to Iran’s dangerous process of reaching nuclear weapons capability. (Note that the West claims to be unwilling to accept Iran’s building a nuclear weapons arsenal, while Israel will not accept Iran’s nuclear weapons capability.) It’s true that Iran has made great strides towards its goal since Netanyahu’s 2015 offensive, but it might have progressed even more had Netanyahu not started ringing the alarm about Iran’s clandestine progress.
Israel’s Prime Minister Naftali Bennett has described Iran’s nuclear program as, being at a “very advanced stage.” He expects disagreement with our greatest of friends. Either way, even with the return to an agreement, Israel is, of course, not part of the agreement. Israel is not bound by it…. Iran is threatening to destroy the state of Israel and they mean it and we need to take it seriously.”
Israeli Defense Minister Benny Gantz added: “’There’s no doubt that a diplomatic solution is preferable, but alongside that we need to have on the table the use of force, which is diplomacy by other means,’ referring to a famous quote from military strategist Carl von Clausewitz,” reported The Times of Israel.
There is doubt that Israel could interdict Iran’s efforts by itself, or even with the help of its new Gulf allies. Weapons that are probably essential include huge bunker-buster bombs and the heavy bombers sufficient to deliver them. Israel has neither, while the US hasn’t offered to supply them. Nevertheless, the Israeli mantra “Never Again” would not allow Israel to stand helplessly by as a mortal enemy prepares to destroy the Jewish state.
CNN reported the strongest pronouncement from the Americans was made this October: “US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said that if diplomatic talks with Iran fail, the United States “is prepared to turn to other options” to prevent the country from obtaining a nuclear weapon.
Additionally, The Times of Israel reported, “A top US general said Iran has the ability to build a nuclear weapon in a very short time and that the US military was ready with other options to prevent this should diplomacy fail. ‘Our president said they’re not going to have a nuclear weapon,’ General Kenneth McKenzie, commander of US Central Command, told TIME magazine in comments published Wednesday. ‘The diplomats are in the lead on this, but Central Command always has a variety of plans that we could execute, if directed.’”
That’s pretty weak tea when confronting a state that is the world’s worst sponsor of terrorism. Israel is the only country willing to say out loud what needs to be done. The fact that Israel’s greatest ally is threatening it with unstated consequences if it doesn’t stop defending itself from a country which means to wipe it off the map is unsettling. It’s made even worse when information from Israel’s renowned intelligence agencies is disregarded. One would expect better from the country that’s supposed to be the leader of the Western world.
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Steve Kramer is a freelance writer based in Kfar Saba, Israel. He may be contacted via steve.kramer@sdjewishworld.com
For the Middle East hands in the Biden administration, what matters most is completing the project many of these Obama alumni helped initiate while serving under Biden’s former boss—realignment with Iran.