By Ira Sharkansky, Ph.D
JERUSALEM — It’s been a couple of weeks, watching the accumulation of Russian troops around the borders of Ukraine, and hearing wild stories from the Russians about Ukrainian aggression. And now a widespread invasion, aimed at what?
And where will it stop? With the capture of Ukraine, or a move into NATO members in Eastern Europe?
Western governments are condemning and sanctioning. But not Israel. Or not nearly as much as other governments. Israel is not a member of NATO, and it depends on cooperation with Russia in Syria. It’s more than a bit complicated. Russia also has good relations with Iran, and it is Iranian facilities that Israel is attacking in Syria. More or less with the cooperation of the Russians.
It’s hard to tell what’s really happening in Ukraine. Both the Russians and the Ukrainians seem to be lying.
The Russian explanation includes the claim that Ukraine is ruled by Nazis. Yet the president of Ukraine is a Jew. Against the background of what Ukrainians did in cooperation with the Nazis, a Jewish president says alot about what’s changed in 70 years.
We’re also hearing of considerable Ukrainian resistance. Including guerra fighting, by the weak against the strong. Yet the comparative weight of the two armies vastly favors the Russians. How much will they attack the population? We hear of attacks and civilian losses. Thousands are leaving the country. Long lines to several border crossings, with little or no movement toward the borders. People leaving their cars, and walking a long way to the border. Interviews with Ukrainians tell a story of suffering, fear, and a willingness to fight unto death.
The Russian target appears to be President Volodymyr Zelensky. We hear that he has refused U.S. offers to provide him with sanctuary. He’s saying that he’ll remain in Kyiv, in office.
Reports that the Russians are in Kyiv, but not yet attacking key government buildings. Ukrainian resistance may be slowing them down. We also hear that the Russians are short on gasoline. True?
Compared to a few days ago, pictures from Kyiv show an empty city, with virtually no traffic on the streets. The government has declared a curfew, and has urged people to stay at home, away from the windows. But roads to the borders are clogged.
Putin has upped his threat, putting Russian nuclear weapons on alert. Is he serious? We can only wonder.
Most recently, we’ve heard of renewed Russian attacks, as well as the beginning of talks between Russia and Ukraine.
Israeli officials have been on a tight line. Some are expressing support for Ukrainian independence. Many express antipathy to Russia. Some fail to mention Russia in their comments. Israel has promised humanitarian assistance to Ukraine, but has rejected requests for military weapons.
How far will Russia go, westward into NATO territory?
Will the sanctions imposed by the U.S. and Europe have an effect?
Why haven’t the U.S. and Europe used more effective means against the Russians?
The last question is the easiest to answer. Ukraine is not part of NATO, and there is no obligation on NATO members to use force. But how active should the U.S. be, and how aggressive should its sound be? Is the world’s policeman still active? Or has it retired after Afghanistan? We’re hearing a lot of nonsense about the weakness of Biden. But how strong can he be, without sending troops against Russia. And how can he do that without risking a major war, capable of escalating to a nuclear confrontation?
These are issues not touched by Israelis and others wanting a more active and effective Joe Biden.
But what will the U.S. and European governments do if Russia goes beyond Ukraine? Is NATO ready for an effective response?
We’ll see.
Lots of unanswered questions. It’s not a time for certainty.
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Ira Sharkansky, Ph.D., is professor emeritus of political science at Hebrew University. He may be contacted via ira.sharkansky@sdjewishworld.com