By Laurie Baron
SAN DIEGO — It’s time to share my Oscar predictions for the major categories. Although my accuracy is usually 80% to 90% depending on the year, prognosticating has become trickier as the Academy has expanded its membership and altered how it conducts its elections. Rather than provide my preferences, I base my predictions on the major Hollywood insider publications.
Best Picture
CODA’s star has been rising lately even though Power of the Dog has been the favorite in this category since the nominations were announced. Given that a crowd-pleaser like Green Book beat out a more cinematically sophisticated film like Roma in the past, I think CODA is going to repeat that scenario.
Best Director
Jane Campion for Power of the Dog. Steven Spielberg has an outside chance of winning for West Side Story.
Best Actor
Will Smith for King Richard. Andrew Garfield in Tick, Tick, Boom or Benjamin Cumberbatch in Power of the Dog could still pull it out.
Best Actress
Jessica Chastain for The Eyes of Tammy Faye. The consensus second choice is Nicole Kidman for Being the Ricardos.
Best Supporting Actress
Ariana De Bose for West Side Story. Kirsten Dunst’s moving performance in Power of the Dog might edge De Bose out.
Best Supporting Actor
Troy Kotsur for CODA. Kodi Smit-McPhee shouldn’t be counted out for Power of the Dog.
Best International Feature
Drive My Car, but lately some columnists and critics have switched their choices to The Worst Person in the World.
Best Feature Length Documentary
Summer of Soul but the animated documentary Flee is a powerful competitor.
Best Animated Feature
Encanto. Flee is nominated in this category too, but The Mitchells and the Machines appears to be the film with an outside chance to win.
Best Original Screenplay
Belfast. Licorice Pizza is the dark horse.
Best Adapted Screenplay
Power of the Dog seemed to have the lock on this category for most of the Oscar season. Drive My Car and CODA, however, have been gaining momentum in the past month.
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Baron is professor emeritus of history at San Diego State University. He may be contacted via lawrence.baron@sdjewishworld.com.
I stand corrected about The Piano 1993.
Her first was for The Piano in 1993.
Correction Thank you.
John
She didn’t win the best director Oscar for The Piano, but did win it for best screenplay.
New Zealand wins one Oscar Dame Jane Campion has her 2nd best director Oscar . He first was for for The Piano in 1993.
Jane has had a few wins this season winning both best director and best movie in London at the Bafta recently for The Power of the Dog. It would have been nice to won the two Oscars as well as the BAFTA’s.
Some Yank made some poor taste comments about a Kiwi making a cowboy movie down under. Well we can do most things here accurately. Hollywood made a movie about the rescue of American diplomats in Teheran after the fall of the Shah. The role played by diplomats from Canada was not the truth. It was New Zealand diplomats that hid the Americans and got them to the Airport and on planes safely out of Iran.