By Ira Sharkansky, Ph.D
JERUSALEM — It has been a busy week in Israel.
The death of Rabbi Chaim Kanievsky, age 94, and the gathering of what was estimated as more than 325,000 supporters to participate in the funeral. Interviews featured reasonable sounding ultra-Orthodox speaking in reverence about the rabbi’s work in leading, and achieving the unity of a fractured set of Haredi communities. We also saw efforts of many to touch the coffin, the grave, or to somehow gain a connection that went beyond the reasonable. For years we haven’t heard the voice of the rabbi, but saw him, presumably whispering or muttering to an interpreter, who would convey his words to the world.
An attack in Beer Sheva by a Bedouin who identified with an extremist movement that resulted in four killed with his knife and two others wounded seriously, before the perpetrator was shot and killed by two Israeli civilians.
The details of this were played, and replayed, or messaged on Israeli media for several days. The treatment included an interview with the man who fired the first shot that put the killer down. The civilian was a bus driver, who didn’t respond to the questions, and seemed uncomfortable in the situation. He initially tried to persuade the killer to put down his knife, and shot only when the killer lunged at him. All in a photographed scene that we saw many times.
The rabbi’s death and the multiple killings in Beer Sheva put the Ukraine war on the back burner. For several days we only got brief updates. When it came back, with vivid pictures of great destruction, especially in the port city of Mariupol, and the continued efforts of Ukrainians to resist. Apparently they have done much to frustrate the Russians. Reports of many Russian deaths, that the Russians are running out of supplies and have poor morale. A lot of their missiles aren’t hitting targets, or fail to explode. We’ve seen reports of a major figure, close to Vladimir Putin, who has protested by resigning his position and leaving Russia.
Reports that Ukrainians are going on the offensive, and pushing Russians back on several fronts. With major destruction of Russian equipment and lots of Russian casualties. Plus Russians being captured, or simply disappearing from the military front.
We also watched an interview with a Russian journalist, speaking from Moscow, whose care in speaking mirrored what we’ve heard elsewhere. While the Israeli interviewing him used the term “war,” the Russian insisted in speaking about “an operation.” He also indicated that there were things he could not speak about. Generally he seemed uncomfortable with the interview. In response to the Israelis citing Russia for an unprovoked attack, the Russians claimed that Ukraine had committed provocations. But his responses did not seem genuine, and his whole demeanor suggested his reluctance to be interviewed.
All told, the interview told us something about Russia’s approach to being a totalitarian state. It punishes those who depart from the leader’s line, tells its people falsehoods, and tries to sell the same lines overseas.
Putin has made continued remarks about non-conventional weapons. His accusations that Ukraine possesses chemical and biological arms suggests to western interpreters that Russia is about to use them. And Putin’s comments about nuclear weapons appear to threaten a major confrontation. This is likely to harm Russia as well as the rest of us.
Meanwhile, President Joe Biden is saying that if Russia uses non-conventional weapons the U.S. will respond.
So are we on the verge of a major confrontation? If Putin remains stubborn, it could be hell for us all.
On the other hand is the possibility of a reasonable Russian decision to desist. Perhaps to retain control of eastern areas of Ukraine heavily Russian in their population. Without a formal agreement from Ukraine, but nonetheless with a quiet concession and continued separation from NATO. Something like this will enable Putin to retain his position, despite heavy losses and frustrated intentions with respect to Ukraine.
We’ll see.
And most recently, there was news of a major gathering of Israeli, American, and Arab foreign ministers in Israel. Coming are major figures from Egypt, the UEA, Bahrain, and Morocco. Maybe Jordan. Speculation about Iran. What about the Palestinians? Have Palestinian issues been moved to the side of the agenda?
Somewhere in the mix of motives is opposition to the nuclear agreement with Iran, which the U.S. seems intent on reaching.
The meeting is likely to be more symbolic than achieving anything pragmatic. Israeli officials talking about a New Middle East. It’ll mean something, but what?
Ira Sharkansky, Ph.D., is professor emeritus of political science at Hebrew University. He may be contacted via ira.sharkansky@sdjewishworld.com