By Ira Sharkansky, Ph.D
JERUSALEM — Maybe it’s the end of summer. The dull days, when little happens. People on vacation, away from homes.
Whatever. We’re surrounded by a number of uncertainties. Nothing grand seems to be happening, but a number of issues have to be decided, one way or the other.
First up, is the threat of a teachers’ strike. School is supposed to open on September 1, a couple of days away. But the teachers are threatening to go on strike.
It happens periodically, with two teachers’ unions. Now there’s a closely divided government, itself waiting on an election in another few months.
We hear there’s a problem overall in teachers’ salaries. But there’s some dispute about that. There’s a special problem for new teachers in the presence of a teacher shortage. And quarrels about including some kind of test for quality teachers, in order to give them more money.
All told, lots of quarrels.
And uncertainties in politics. An election scheduled for early November, and lots of maneuvers among the candidates and parties, with polls showing no great change likely to occur.
The reason for the election is itself minor. A few individual Knesset Members attached to parties in the government decided not to continue their support. Reasons mostly seemed insignificant, with demands for one small issue or another. Mostly the egos of minor politicians seeking some kind of notice.
So, the government decided on an election. And current polls show a similar result. Bibi and Likud are the leading party, but with likely allies not about to get more than 58 or 59 seats in the 120-seat Knesset. Their opponents are led by Yair Lapid, currently serving as Prime Minister. And to reach 61 seats, he’ll need the support of both Arab parties.
We’re currently in the midst of maneuverings to unite Labor and Meretz, as well as Ben Gvir and Smotrich–one cluster on the left and one of the right. Speculation that uniting or not might increase one side or another by one seat or maybe two. Current arguments feature the political egos and claims.
There’s also an issue about the international agreement with Iran, with Israel on the outside of negotiations but pressing the United States. Currently it looks like an agreement is likely, with the US in favor. Israel is opposed, but divided, with some in the security services supporting what seems likely to be the agreement.
And a threatened strike by interns and young specialist physicians. Some older physicians claim that younger ones are lazy. Plus a quarrel with the ultra-Orthodox about the construction of a rapid transit line in Jerusalem that will cross over a prominent intersection in one of the Haredi neighborhoods.
So, who knows what’ll happen in all of these. And what’ll happen when we get to Autumn, with vacations over, people back to school and work. And maybe a major crisis nearby or distant that attracts the attention of those making decisions.
Meanwhile, the war continues in Ukraine. With little movement and continued losses on both sides. Many Ukrainians displaced. Some have come to Israel. It looks like a medium sized country having thwarted the might of a larger one, with the Russian army proven incompetent. What’s next? The threat of Russian nuclear weapons, and an attack against a major Ukrainian nuclear power station?. A Ukrainian attack against the Russians in the Crimean peninsula?
Are western sanctions against Russia working? And massive western aid to Ukraine?
Who knows.
We’ll see.
*
Ira Sharkansky is professor emeritus of political science t Hebrew University. He may be contacted via ira.sharkansky@sdjewishworld.com