By Ira Sharkansky, Ph.D
JERUSALEM– We’ve heard what Ben Gvir wants. We think. Plus Smotrich. And SHAS. But it’s not that clear. In negotiations, one doesn’t always–or ever–lay final demands on the table at the beginning. Activists are not denying what they want, but they are soft pedaling their campaign promises. National unity is a theme among party leaders, but not all Knesset members of each party. We can only hope.
The Israeli election was a lot closer than it appears from the number of seats each group won in the Knesset. Perhaps a bit more than 3,000 votes separated the major groups. But in the campaigns, various egos got in the way of combining parties that lost votes for Meretz and Labor, as well as the Arab parties. The result is that Bibi’s seats in the Knesset are greater than the votes in the public. A Knesset majority of 64 looks pretty large compared to what has been, but the tensions within and between parties might get in the way of any clear program of legislative change.
Bibi’s biggest challenge will come from Ben Gvir and Smotrich. Where do they really stand on a tough policy toward Arabs, Israeli control of the West Bank, abortion, homosexuals, transgenders, Reform Jews, and non-Jews living in Israel? What ministries will they demand and get? And how much freedom will they have in those ministries?
Ben Gvir traces his roots to Meir Kahane, whose incitement against the Arabs caused his being read out of political activity.
SHAS increased its vote in this election, and the issue of Arye Deri getting a ministry despite his criminal conviction will be on the table. Both SHAS and Torah Judaism will demand no taxes on disposable eating utensils and deposits on large bottles of soda, but we can wonder about the import of those issues on a national government. Presumably the Haredi parties will also demand concessions on education (opposition to the Education Ministry’s basic learning program), and financial support. And perhaps their opposition to Ben Gvir’s concern to pray on the Temple Mount.
What’ll be the impact on Bibi’s criminal trial?
We’re hearing that there’ll be moves against the judiciary and against the trial. In any case, it’s been moving with the speed of an injured turtle, likely to take from three to ten years to complete.
And will there be actions to spread Israeli control over the West Bank? That’s what some right-wing supporters want, with an expansion of settlement.
Recently Bibi refused to be photographed alongside Ben Gvir, and otherwise sought to distance himself. But Ben Gvir ended the election as the second largest party, with close to half the Knesset seats as Likud. Without Ben Gvir, there would be no Bibi government? So, what will Ben Gvir receive?
Commentators who had supported Lapid are dire in their predictions. Bibi’s history is as an evader and liar. He’s a crafty politician, whose past does not produce a clear prediction of the future.
The exiting government is quarreling about who is responsible for the loss of Meretz. The party won’t be in the Knesset, and voices are blaming Lapid for his lack of support, as well as the leaders of Meretz and Labor for their failure to form a coalition.
There is a lot of wind in our mass media, with commentators all over the map.
We’ll have to wait and see. For a couple of weeks or more till the formation of a government, and then for more time to see how it functions.
And we’re waiting on this week’s American election. Or elections. In 50 states and 435 Congressional Districts. A mixture of national and local interests. And lots of political egos getting in the way of clear understanding. Not all that different from what we have here.
Projections are of Republican ascendance. And Donald Trump is talking about running for President in two years. He’ll start long before then. Will he continue to claim that his 2020 victory was stolen? Will he continue to rant against US democratic traditions?
Lots more questions than answers, both here and there.
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Ira Sharkansky, Ph.D, is professor emeritus of political science at Hebrew University. He may be contacted via ira.sharkansky@sdjewishworld.com