By Ira Sharkansky, Ph.D
JERUSALEM — Prime minister-designate Benjamin Netanyahu’s earlier indication that he could finish with his government in a couple of days isn’t holding.
So far, he seems to have promised the Finance Ministry to Aryeh Deri, but Bibi’s promises are worth a wet tissue in a thunderstorm.
There’s also a problem with Deri having been convicted of tax evasion. There’s a law indicating that such a person cannot serve as government minister, that is likely to produce a demand for the judiciary to rule against him. Yet there is confusion about Deri’s term “on condition” and that he didn’t actually serve jail time.
And Bibi seems to be stuck with a demand from Bezalel Smotrich to be defense minister.
Bibi has said no, but Smotrich is holding firm. He’s also blaming Americans for interfering in Israeli politics. Americans may have been too outspoken, or perhaps their comments were leaked to the press by Israelis. In any case, the opposition to Smotrich is serious and local as well as international.
For one thing, there are qualified Israelis, Yoav Galant, a former general and head of the Southern Command, as well as Avi Dichter, a former head of Shin Bet. Both are active Likudniks and supporters of Bibi.
For another thing, Israel’s defense minister should have a firm reputation among the military and among Americans and others with whom the defense minister must deal on matters of aid, logistics, intelligence, and operations. Smotrich has none of these qualifications. He was never a military officer, and not even a regular soldier. He was a successful transportation minister. He’s smart and adjustable, but not, apparently, prepared to be Israel’s defense minister.
Yet he’s holding to his demand. And his colleague at the top of the Religious Zionist Party, Itamar Ben-Gvir, who seems to have been promised the role of Ministry of Public Security, has said that he won’t join Bibi’s government if Smotrich is not in it.
So what can Bibi do?
Most desirable would be to persuade Smotrich to accept a less prominent ministry. Currently, they seem to be avoiding one another.
Failing that, he might try replacing the Religious Zionists, with 14 Knesset Seats, with Benny Gantz’s party, National Unity, with 12 Knesset Seats.
Gantz seems to have waffled a bit on his lack of willingness to serve with Bibi. And the party replacement would reduce Bibi’s Knesset majority to 62 Seats, just two above a tie, and more open to an individual Knesset member or two holding his government at risk of falling.
But Smotrich’s demand also holds his government at risk.
It’ll take a while to solve. Currently we’re waiting.
Bibi’s option of taking himself off the table, and being replaced by another leader of Likud, seems too far-fetched to be considered. He’s Israel’s most popular politician, despite being on trial for three indictments. We hear that he’s concerned to be prime minister and will somehow legislate an end to his trial. But it is proceeding at a very slow pace, and is projected to continue for three years or maybe 10 years. Could Bibi possibly step down? Who would replace him?
He has another three weeks to form a government, and his time can be extended by another two weeks.