By Laurie Baron
SAN DIEGO — This year making Oscar predictions is difficult for several reasons. Oscar prognosticators originally thought that Emilia Perez was the frontrunner in many of the 13 categories for which it was nominated. Then past Islamophobic and racist social media posts by it its transgender lead Karla Sofía Gascón surfaced undermining its Oscar chances. Although the film revolves around a Mexican drug cartel boss who transitions to become a woman and philanthropist, several gay and trans rights organizations criticized the seamier side of its protagonist. On the other hand, Trump’s assault on the trans community might bolster Hollywood support for Emilia Perez.
The backlash against Trump’s Gaza fantasy and Israel’s war there, as well as to the displacement and suppression of Palestinians in the West Bank, has elicited sympathy for the documentary No Other Land, a searing indictment of Israel’s West Bank policies. So could the boycott of the movie by American film distribution companies. Given the rank order voting system, the pro-Israel and anti-Hamas voters in the Academy could block No Other Land from winning.
No Other Land, however, is competing with the Porcelain War, another motion picture about a pet cause of the motion picture industry: sympathy for Ukraine. The film juxtaposes the wanton destructiveness of the Russian war in Ukraine with scenes of an artisan couple who resist despair by making porcelain figures. Trump’s abandonment of Ukraine and affinity for Russia embodied in the unjust peace terms he is imposing on our former ally might offset the pro-Palestinian sentiment for No Other Land.
Finally, as in all Oscar ceremonies, the tendency to favor critically acclaimed films over popular ones may have affected Oscar voting. Conventional box-office hits like Conclave and Wicked probably will lose out to unconventional works like Anora, Emilia Perez, and The Brutalist.
Similarly, the Academy sometimes retroactively recognizes veteran actors who’ve never garnered an Oscar nomination or won an Oscar over younger newcomers. This may happen in the Best Actress category which pits veteran Demi Moore from The Substance against Mikey Madison in Anora. Moore plays an aging television fitness coach who gets fired from her exercise show because she is no longer sufficiently beautiful to attract a younger audience. Mikey Madison portrays a feisty stripper who weds the playboy son of a Russian oligarch prompting his family to dispatch thugs to force her to annul the marriage. Conversely, the Academy has previously honored actresses for playing hookers with hearts of gold like Jane Fonda in Klute or Mira Sorvino in Mighty Aphrodite. Moreover, it has been averse to bestowing Oscars on horror films like The Substance.
Best Film: I anticipate Anora. The likely second choice is Conclave.
Best Director: Brady Corbet for The Brutalist. The likely second choice is Sean Baker for Anora.
Best Actor: Adrien Brody for The Brutalist. The likely second choice is Timothée Chalamet in A Complete Unknown.
Best Supporting Actor: Kieren Culkin for A Real Pain. The likely second choice is Edward Norton for A Complete Unknown.
Best Actress: Demi Moore for The Substance. The likely second choice is Mikey Madison for Anora. Although she probably won’t win, the actress who most deserves this is Fernanda Torres for I’m Still Here.
Best Supporting Actress: Zoe Saldana for Emilia Perez. The likely second choice is Ariana Grande for Wicked.
Best International Feature Film: I’m Still Here. The likely second choice is Emilia Perez.
Best Animated Feature Film: The Wild Robot. The likely second choice is Flow.
Best Documentary Feature Film: Porcelain War. The likely second choice is No Other Land.
Best Adapted Screenplay: Peter Straughan for Conclave. The likely second choice is Nickel Boys.
Best Original Screenplay: Sean Baker for Anora. The likely second choice is A Real Pain.
Laurie Baron is professor emeritus of history at San Diego State University.